Kurdish Forces at the Crossroads of War: What the Iran Conflict Means for the Kurdish People
- Rezan Babakir
- 5 hours ago
- 8 min read
Overview
On Saturday 1 March 2026, the United States and Israel launched a sweeping military campaign against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering a full-scale regional war. Four days in, the Kurdish people sit at the very heart of the conflict. Iranian drones are striking Kurdish opposition bases in northern Iraq. The CIA is arming Kurdish forces inside Iran to ignite a popular uprising. President Trump has personally called both Iraqi Kurdish leaders and the president of the KDPI. And tens of thousands of Kurdish fighters — in Iraq, in the mountains of Rojhilat, and in the Syrian northeast — are deciding whether this is the moment they have waited generations for, or another betrayal in the making.
Contents
The war that analysts had long warned about has arrived. The US-Israel military campaign against Iran — now in its fourth day — has set the entire Middle East on fire. But for the Kurdish people, this is not simply another regional conflict to observe from the margins. The Kurdish people are inside this war: as targets, as potential ground forces, as a people being called upon once again to risk everything in a fight that others started. Below is the full picture of what is happening, and what it means for Kurds across the region.
How the War Began
The US-Israel Strike and Khamenei's Death
On the morning of Saturday 1 March 2026, the United States and Israel launched a massive, coordinated military strike against Iran. More than 50,000 US troops, 200 aircraft, two aircraft carriers, and strategic bombers participated in the opening campaign. Among the first targets was the Iranian leadership compound in Tehran, where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed. His wife died of her injuries the following day. Israel and the US simultaneously struck nuclear infrastructure, IRGC command centres, missile sites, naval bases, and broadcasting facilities across the country.
Iran struck back immediately and hard. The IRGC fired ballistic missiles and drones at US bases in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE, struck the US embassy in Kuwait, and threatened to block all oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also targeted the UK Royal Air Force base at Akrotiri in Cyprus. As of Wednesday 4 March, the Iranian death toll stands at over 1,045, and the conflict shows no sign of slowing — with President Trump stating publicly that the war will last four to five weeks.
The Kurdish Dimension
Iran Strikes Kurdish Bases in Northern Iraq
Even before the formal outbreak of the war, Iran was moving against the Kurds. The IRGC began striking Iranian Kurdish opposition group bases in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq from as early as 28 February. On Sunday 1 March, a senior Kurdish official reported that the headquarters of four Iranian Kurdish parties between Erbil and Duhok had been hit by Iranian drones in a single evening. On Wednesday, drones struck an arms depot at the Kurdish Freedom Party's base in Dekala, injuring two fighters. The Harir military base near Erbil International Airport — which hosts US and coalition forces — was also struck. Sulaymaniyah, the PUK's stronghold, came under attack on Tuesday evening.
Iran has long accused the Kurdistan Region of harbouring militant groups it views as threats to the Islamic Republic. But the scale and speed of these strikes since the war began represents a dramatic escalation. Tehran-aligned Iraqi militias have also widened their target list, moving beyond US bases near Erbil to directly attack Iranian Kurdish opposition group headquarters. For civilian communities in the Kurdistan Region, a region that has long prided itself on its stability, this is a deeply alarming development.
The CIA Plan to Arm Kurdish Forces
On Wednesday, CNN reported that the CIA has been actively working to arm Iranian Kurdish forces, with the explicit aim of igniting a popular uprising inside Iran. The Trump administration has been in direct discussions with multiple Kurdish opposition groups and Iraqi Kurdish leaders about military support. According to ITV News, this preparation goes back further than the current war — weapons have been smuggled into western Iran over the past year, arming thousands of Kurdish volunteers inside the country. American and Israeli strikes along the Iran-Iraq border have reportedly been deliberately targeting IRGC border positions to clear the path for a Kurdish ground entry into western Iran.
Senior Kurdish sources told CNN that Iranian Kurdish opposition forces are expected to launch a ground operation inside western Iran within days. "We believe we have a big chance now," one senior Iranian Kurdish official told the network. The operation would depend on US and Israeli air cover — though sources stress that formal approval for that support has not yet been confirmed. Any weapons or forces moving from Iraq into Iran would also require the cooperation of the Kurdistan Regional Government, placing Erbil in an extraordinarily sensitive political position.
Trump Calls Kurdish Leaders Directly
The diplomatic intensity around the Kurds has reached the very top. On Sunday, the day after the bombing campaign began, President Trump called both Masoud Barzani of the KDP and Bafel Talabani of the PUK — the two main political leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan — to discuss the war and explore how the Kurds and Americans could work together as it progresses. Two US officials and a source familiar with the calls confirmed this to Axios, describing the conversations as "sensitive."
On Tuesday, Trump also personally called Mustafa Hijri, the president of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI) — one of the oldest and largest Iranian Kurdish opposition movements and a group that the IRGC targeted with drone strikes that same week. The calls mark an unprecedented level of direct US engagement with Kurdish political leadership, and have electrified Kurdish communities across the region. Netanyahu is reported to have played a key role in pushing Trump toward Kurdish engagement, having lobbied for the Kurds extensively in White House meetings.
The Kurdish Coalition and the Ground Operation
The timing of what is unfolding is not coincidental. Just six days before the war began, five major Iranian Kurdish opposition parties — PDKI, PAK, PJAK, the Organisation of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle, and Komala — announced the formation of the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, a unified front against the Islamic Republic. That coalition now stands on the brink of military action. There are an estimated ten million Kurds inside Iran. Thousands have undergone training in the mountains over many years. The question of whether those forces move — and whether they receive the US and Israeli air cover they are requesting — may be the most consequential decision of the coming days.
The Iraqi Kurdish Dilemma
Caught Between Washington and Tehran
While Iranian Kurdish opposition groups are leaning toward action, the Iraqi Kurdish leadership finds itself in an agonising position. The Kurdistan Region shares a long border with Iran, has deep economic ties with Tehran, and is already being struck by Iranian drones. Bafel Talabani of the PUK — whose Sulaymaniyah base was attacked — nonetheless held a phone call with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and publicly urged a peaceful solution. A senior KRG official told CNN that Washington's position has been unclear and inconsistent: "One day Trump says we will overthrow the regime, the next day he says something different. The policy is not clear."
The KRG's strategic dilemma is severe. Allowing US-armed Kurdish forces to use Iraqi Kurdistan as a launching ground for a ground operation inside Iran would almost certainly invite massive Iranian retaliation against the region. Yet refusing to cooperate with Washington risks alienating the superpower that has been the primary guarantor of Kurdish autonomy in Iraq for over two decades. There is no easy path, and the civilian population of the Kurdistan Region — already living under incoming drone fire — will bear the consequences of whichever choice is made.
A Warning: The History of Kurdish Betrayal
Many within the Trump administration are privately acknowledging what Kurdish leaders have learned through bitter experience: the United States has repeatedly courted the Kurds in a moment of need, then withdrawn support once its objectives were met. Kurdish forces were essential to the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria — and were then abandoned when Turkey objected to their continued US support. The Kurds were promised a great deal after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and received far less. Analysts at Chatham House have already warned that the CIA arming plan appears to be an "afterthought" that has not featured in serious strategic planning for the war's endgame, and that it risks setting off internal conflict inside Iran without a coherent plan for what comes next.
The Kurdish people deserve more than to be a tool deployed by others in a war they did not start, then discarded when it suits Washington or Jerusalem. The question of whether this moment — with Khamenei dead, the IRGC degraded, and ten million Kurds inside Iran ready to act — represents a genuine turning point for Kurdish self-determination in Rojhilat, or another chapter of sacrifice without reward, is one that will define the coming weeks.
Looking Ahead
The next several days will be decisive. If Iranian Kurdish forces launch a ground operation into western Iran — armed by the CIA, supported by US and Israeli air power — it will be the most significant Kurdish military action since the defeat of ISIS, and potentially the most consequential in a generation. The formation of the Kurdish coalition just days before the war began suggests this was anticipated and prepared for. But the risks are enormous: Iranian retaliation against the Kurdistan Region of Iraq could be devastating, the loyalty and capacity of Kurdish volunteers inside Iran is untested at scale, and the US track record of standing by the Kurds in the long term is, to put it plainly, poor. The Kurdish people are watching, waiting, and deciding. So is the world.
FAQs
When did the US-Israel war on Iran begin?
The US and Israel launched a massive coordinated military strike against Iran on Saturday 1 March 2026. The campaign killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear facilities, IRGC military infrastructure, and command centres across the country. As of 4 March, the war is in its fourth day, with President Trump estimating it will last four to five weeks.
Why are Kurdish forces so important to this war?
Kurdish forces offer something US and Israeli air power cannot — boots on the ground inside Iran. With an estimated ten million Kurds in Iran and thousands of trained fighters along the Iraq-Iran border, they represent a potential internal uprising force. The CIA is reportedly arming them specifically to spark a popular revolt against the Islamic Republic from within, with a ground operation into western Iran expected imminently.
Is Erbil and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in danger?
Yes. Iran has already struck the Harir military base near Erbil, hit Sulaymaniyah, and targeted Kurdish opposition party bases across the region with drone strikes since the conflict began. Tehran-aligned Iraqi militias have also expanded their attacks to include Iranian Kurdish opposition headquarters inside the Kurdistan Region. The situation is actively dangerous for civilians and military personnel alike.
What is the Kurdish coalition formed just before the war?
Six days before the war began, five major Iranian Kurdish opposition parties — PDKI, PAK, PJAK, the Organisation of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle, and Komala — announced the formation of the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan. Its stated goal is to bring down the Islamic Republic and establish Kurdish self-determination in Iran. The coalition's formation now looks like direct preparation for the current conflict.
Could this war finally lead to Kurdish independence in Iran?
It is the question on every Kurdish person's lips. The conditions — Khamenei dead, the IRGC degraded, a unified Kurdish coalition, US backing — are more favourable than at any point in living memory. But analysts warn that US support is unpredictable, Iran has heavily fortified its Kurdish regions, and the Kurds have been abandoned by Washington before. The opportunity is real. Whether it is seized — and whether it lasts — remains to be seen.
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